U.S., China Trade Talks: Analysis

U.S., China Trade Talks: Analysis


top trade negotiators in years in China
resume negotiations in Washington today the entire world is keeping a close eye
on how this 13th round of talks will unfold as there’s a lot riding on the
outcome of these talks with significant ratification for not only the world’s
two largest economies but the global economy so what are the prospects a
sweeping treaty or another breakdown let’s get some experts analysis joining
me live via Skype is Jeff moon and international trade Affairs consultant
from Washington DC he also previously worked for the White House as the
assistant US Trade Representative welcome to the program thank you now I’m
as USTR Robert light Heiser and Treasury Secretary Steven minutia enter trade
talks today there have been in various speculations about the prospects for
this week’s two-day talks some reports say officials are heading
to the talks with low expectations for major progress in reaching a deal months
after negotiations broke down in May while others say that China is open to a
small deal as long as Donald Trump does not impose more terrorists while China
offers to increase annual purchase of US agricultural products
what are your prospects I mean is this mini deal good enough or is it not well
the parties have made it very clear that we’re probably not going to get a
comprehensive deal out of this round there have been press reports that lyoha
the lead Chinese negotiator has said that he is not going to be addressing
the industrial policy issues that are of most concern to the United States and I
interpret the American decision to impose these sanctions just two days
before talks start as there’s likely an expectation that there won’t be a full
deal so so what’s possible I think that a mini deal is possible from about now
until they’re beginning the real beginning of the u.s. electoral season
that’s probably February the 3rd that is when the Iowa caucuses will be held and
the first voting will be happening and when you look at the kind of things that
could be in the mini deal I would say look at the things
that both parties want to do and would do were it not for the fact that they
want to punish the other side and these are things like on the Chinese side
agricultural purchases China need soybeans they need pork pork inflation
has gone up 60% on pork prices because China has a problem with this pig
population on the American side the American side wants to probably think
about some technology licenses perhaps for Huawei non-security related one
perhaps Android and things like that and frankly I don’t think President Trump
wants to impose the next round of tariffs which for the first time would
directly affect consumers so these are all things that both sides could frame
as concessions or goodwill gestures but in fact are really self-serving things
that they would do anyway were it not for the fact that they’re in the middle
of a trade war so let’s say you said that
you have you have a red beets hence that there will not be a comprehensive a deal
reached until the electoral season which will be February in the US next year so
however both parties are tangled and a political turmoil Trump with an
impeachment proceedings in the US and of course Xi Jinping with angry protesters
in Hong Kong would they not welcome some good news or a deal in the trade front yes let me clarify a bit in my meaning
my meaning was that there’s a window between now and when the electoral
season starts in February where we could do a deal I think that after that time
in the middle of the electoral season it will be too hard there will be too much
pressure here domestically for Trump to make a deal but you raise a good point I
think that both Trump and Xi Jinping are probably politically at their weakest
point of their tenures because of in the case of Trump impeachment and because of
the political pressure in Hong Kong and it occurs to me that if they were do the
kind to do the kind of things I described before that this would be a
good way to create good news divert attention and probably benefit both of
the countries no I’m Jeff why don’t you help us or
help us make sense out of this I mean you were at the table negotiating such
deals yourself with the US government before now the US government of course
slapped blacklisted blacklisted 28 entities or Chinese firms why would try
to agree to any kind of a deal at this point despite the trump administration’s
latest block listing of more than two dozen Chinese firms and and put visa
restrictions on Chinese officials like we just reported before the Skype
link-up well since those sanctions were
announced there have been press reports of Chinese willingness to strike a mini
deal just today there were those reports that came out so that seems to be the
fact I do think however though it was a mistake to bring up these political
issues in the context of the trade deal which is really about economic issues
this is the first time that the Trump administration has brought political
concerns like human rights in Xinjiang into the context of the trade deal and
traditionally US administration’s in dealings with the Chinese have separated
these kinds of issues out because once you start piling more and more issues
into a negotiation whether it be a trade negotiation or any negotiation things
get complicated and it’s much harder to sort them out and then to solve the
dispute and reach a full resolution so it is my hope that in the future they
will find a way to split these issues out it was unfortunate that it’s done
this way and we’ll just have to see how it plays out in the short term now from
now until they reach some kind of a mini deal and then until they reach hopefully
a comprehensive deal what are some factors that will impact the us-china
trade deal on in the mid to longer term do you think well politics is certainly
a big part of it in the in the US the politics is all about the US election
that’s coming up and that’s why I say that in the short term until February
that that pressure is diminished but starting in February or even the
beginning of the year everything that Trump does including any deal he
has will be examined in great detail and criticized in great
detail and that’s why with every day that passes toward the election chances
of a resolution diminish before the election on the Chinese side
I think the Hong Kong situation is really very serious this is a serious
challenge to China if China cracks down severely on Hong Kong I think there will
be no trade negotiation and no trade resolution into the indefinite future
and that would be very unfortunate I think the China’s trying very hard to
manage the situation very carefully but internal politics are very important and
there’s another problem that’s just developed within the past few days and
that’s this NBA situation which has started a boycott which is another
retaliatory tactic that China has not yet used in this trade dispute they have
not actually gone into boycotts the way that they did in 1997 with South Korea
just I hope this is not a new phase of the trade were the kind of retaliation
that we’re going to see but that’s something that we also need to watch
very carefully we need to contain the retaliation because in the end really
the people of both China and the United States really want a resolution of this
problem now and also what kind of an impact we can we expect at this trade
war if prolonged it between the two world’s largest economies to have on the
global economy Asian economy and and then down to the South Korean economy
well from a the biggest macro perspective I think the biggest effect
is on our rules based global trading system we had been working since World
War two to create an orderly rules-based trading system where we could resolve
trade disputes peacefully and I think that this has done great damage to that
because a lot of principles have been ignored with regard to specific
countries and Asia and South Korea I think what you’re seeing is shifting
supply chains companies do not want to ship supply chains is not easy to move
people resources person you know personnel everything and once you do it
you don’t move back so those my chains are now shifting as we speak
and I think that that is going to affect the economy of China it could be to the
benefit of a lot of other countries and I know that South Korea plays an
especially important role in the electronics industry and so there’s
going to be a great impact on the supply chain that South Korea has as well
all right Jeff moon international treaty furs is consulted and a former assistant
at USTR thank you so much for your insights today we appreciate it
my pleasure thank you

20 comments

  1. Hopeless to negotiate with a narrow minded US ,decoupling the two economies are more meaningful than have a one sided deal !

  2. All these so called experts are really not qualified to speak on behalf of China. How can they present a balanced view when their see things through an American lens? I agree with you astro ayumi that decoupling is the best way to end this chaos.

  3. USA is trying to bully China.
    China is trying to play waiting game.
    let's see who is going to kneel first.
    I don't think it will be China.

  4. Puppets propaganda fake news retarded anti China every day none stop this is ridiculous

    Long live CCP father 🙏🙏🙏🙏

  5. Trump is playing a game to get him elected for secound term on the sacrifice on the farmers who suffer and push to the point of committing suicide. What a ashame.

  6. Any deals only to buy agricultural products from United states isn't a deal. A deal to pushes Huawei products away from United states and European countries isn't a deal. Which means No deal!! Nothing like partial deal.

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