Partial government shutdown may impact US economic growth

Partial government shutdown may impact US economic growth


THAT IS NOT THE CASE JUST YET. WE’LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. BRING IN THE AUTHOR OF ICONOCLASTS, BRIAN DEMETRIVICH. ALSO DAVID BAHNSEN AS WELL. START WITH YOU, BRIAN, IMPACT OF THE SHUTDOWN, TODAY WHEN JAMIE DIMON SUGGESTED WE COULD HAVE ZERO GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER, I KIND OF, I THOUGHT IT WAS REALLY RECKLESS ON HIS PART TO MAKE THAT SUGGESTION, CONSIDERING THAT ALL THE WORK OUT THERE SAYS THAT WHILE THERE, THERE WILL BE AN ECONOMIC IMPACT SHOULDN’T BE THAT DIRE.>>SURE. GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS A COMPONENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. IF IT SLOWS TO SOMETHING NEAR A HALT, WE COULD HAVE SLOW GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER, BUT THE THING IS THAT WILL REBOUND OVER ABUNDANTLY IN THE SECOND QUARTER, BUT THE MORE IMPORTANT PHENOMENON IS THIS. THE MORE THESE FEDERAL WORKERS ARE FURLOUGHED, THE MORE THEY WILL GET SECOND JOBS TO ENTER INTO THE GIG ECONOMY. WE COULD SEE MIGRATION OF THE FEDERAL WORKFORCE, AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT INTO THE REAL ECONOMY. LET ME TELL YOU, THAT WILL PRESAGE REAL GROWTH IN THE FUTURE. CHARLES: BUT YOU, I SAW A TWEET FROM YOU, IN L.A., YOU ARE SAYING LISTEN THE AIRPORT WAS PRETTY EMPTY, PRETTY SMOOTH. WE’RE HEARING THE HORROR STORIES. MAIN IT IS COMPOSED IN MAINSTREAM MEDIA, HOW INFLUENCING REGULAR FOLKS, NOT ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE, HARD TO MAKE THAT ARGUMENT, BUT WE’RE ALL IMPACTED BY NEGATIVE WAY, MAYBE WE WAIT EXTRA HALF HOUR TO GET ON A PLANE?>>I HAVE TWO PERSPECTIVES I CARE ABOUT. WHAT ARE AMERICANS ACTUALLY SEEING AND FEELING AND FROM INVESTOR MARKET STANDPOINT. WHAT I DON’T CARE WHAT THEY’RE SAYING IN THE BELTWAY AND MAINSTREAM MEDIA TAKE ON IT. FIRST TWO, FIND IT A TOTAL NON-EVENT. THERE IS NO REAL IMPACT TAKING PLACE. BRIAN IS RIGHT, SPEAKS TO WHAT JAMIE DIMON SAID, THERE IS MATHEMATICAL SENSE REDUCED GOVERNMENT SPENDING COMES OUT OF INPUT TO GDP. SIMPLY FORMULAIC NUMBER — CHARLES: HARD TO SAY DRAMATICALLY OFFSET CONSUMER SPENDING, BUSINESS INVESTMENT?>>I DON’T THINK CONSUMER IS EVEN AWARE IT IS HAPPENING. I DON’T THINK THE CONSUMER CARES ONE BIT. TWEET AT LAX FLYING OUT TO MORNING, WASN’T IT WAS JUST BAD, BETTER THAN I EVER SEEN IT. FLOWN OUT TO NEW YORK ALMOST 300 TIMES LAST 20 YEARS. THE LEAST LINES AND COMMOTION I EVER SEEN. I THINK IT IS MUCH TO DO ABOUT NOTHING. CHARLES: ONE THING BOTHERS ME BUT I DON’T UNDERSTAND IT, CLOs, CLOs. I FEEL LIKE EVERY MAJOR ECONOMIC CRASH THROUGHOUT MY TIME ON WALL STREET HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABUSE OF SOME INSTRUMENT. JUNK BONDS, COLLATERALIZE DEBT OBLIGATIONS, THOSE KIND OF THINGS. CLOs ARE THE SORT OF THING I’M HEARING ABOUT. RECORD AMOUNT DONE LAST YEAR. MONEY MAKING THING, CAN’T MISS THING, THOSE ARE RED FLAGS FOR ME.>>EVERY CRASH HAPPENED IN 500 YEARS HAS COME DOWN TO SOME EXCESS OF DEBT, SOME ABUSE OF DEBT SO YOU’RE EXACTLY RIGHT. IN THE PAST THERE HAS BEEN SPIRALING JUNK BOND EXCESS. WE KNOW THE MORTGAGE STORY. CLOs ARE A BIT DIFFERENT THEY DON’T HAVE TO BE PURCHASED BY REGULAR INVESTORS AND LEVERED UP OF THE FACT OF THE MATTER THERE IS A LOT MORE COMPANIES BORROWING A LOT MORE MONEY. THIS IS A DIFFERENT STREWMENT THEY’RE DOING IT THROUGH. THE FED PUT $4 TRILLION OF HA LIQUIDITY INTO THE ECONOMY POST-FINANCIAL CRISIS. HOW MUCH IS CORPORATE DEBT, CLOs, LEVERED, UP 4 TRILLION. THEY WANTED REFLATION IN THE CORPORATE ECONOMY. THEY GOT IT. THE PROPER STEWARDSHIP OF THE MONEY GOING FORWARD IS THE NEXT QUESTION. THERE IS NOT EXCESS OF LEVERAGE IN THE ECONOMY BUT THEY’RE UP AGAINST THOSE LIMITS. THAT IS WHY THEY’RE SO CONCERNED ABOUT THE FED PULLING AWAY THE PUNCHBOWL. CHARLES: BRIAN, GET FROM YOU AS MARKET HAS GIVEN UP 100 POINTS IN THE LAST 20 MINUTES, WHAT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN THAT YOU THINK FACES OUR ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET THIS YEAR?>>I THINK THE STOCK MARKET WILL NOT LIKE END TO GRIDLOCK. IF THERE IS A BIG PARTY IN WASHINGTON ABOUT SPENDING, THE MARKET WILL REALLY PULL BACK. IF WE DON’T HAVE FUTURE TAX CUTS AND DEREGULATION LIKE WE HAD BACK IN 2017, THE MARKET WILL SECOND-GUESS WHY IT INCREASED 25%, OVER SIFT, 2017. SHRINKING GOVERNMENT LONG TERM IS WHAT THE STOCK MARKET WILL LOVE.

19 comments

  1. Not affecting me so far. Private sector work and not on tax payers dime pencil pusher govt. worker. Not planning during winter to go to national parks. This is me.. I don’t care! Keep it shut down!!!

  2. https://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2019/01/u-s-doles-out-millions-during-shutdown-vulnerable-costa-rican-youth-aids-in-mozambique/

  3. "Only I can fix it"… "I make great deals" 😂😅🤣😂😅🤣😂😅🤣
    … "I hire only the best people" 😂😂😂😂

  4. I live in the DC metro area.
    The only thing Ive noticed is less traffic, rat race govt types commuting.
    Lets keep it shut down for another month.

  5. I'm just going to say this not because I'm wrong, but I have friends that are getting way to Afraid. MR PRESIDENT, Government will need to turn on at least in the next 30 days. Our deficit will not be cured but perhaps stock market might hit. In other words, we'll be back in a more rich Democratic Communism. It breaks my heart. We were never free after the 90's. Now it's to late.

  6. Shrinking government helps stock market.
    What he means is cutting social security and other government programs to help fun tax to large corporations that already keeps wages low is what he really means. These people are disgusting

  7. Shrinking government helps stock market.
    What he means is cutting social security and other government programs to help fun tax to large corporations that already keeps wages low is what he really means. These people are disgusting

  8. Smells like the rulers are wrecking the government intentionally, to turn over governance to Corporations and conglomerates.

  9. I'm jumping with joy in how Trump and the Republicans are loosing the court of public opinion. Even Rasmussen has Trumps disapproval rating at 55 percent. Pathetic!

  10. Κρίμα για τον Αμερικάνικο λαό. Πραγματικά κρίμα.
    Ο Πρόεδρος τους βγάζει χρήμα πέρα από τη Ρωσία μέσα από τα πρακτορια της CIA που δήθεν χρησιμοποιεί για λόγους εθνικής ασφάλειας αλλά λειτουργεί περισσότερο σα Μαφία.. Τύφλα να χουν άλλες Μαφίες. Σαν τη CIA δεν έχει

  11. Trump: "If we don't get what we want then I will shut down the government. I am proud to shut down the government for the border wall, Chuck. I will be the one to shut it down, I'm not going to blame you for it.

    Trump can end the Trump shutdown whenever he wants.

  12. This shut down isn’t stopping nothing. The people like pelosi and many others already have plenty they stolen from us already and they aren’t the ones affected by the shutdown the people of the country and the country itself is what’s going to suffer not none of them crooked fucks. This shutdown is a ploy to keep the people’s attention off what they are really doing screwing us all over even worse then they already have.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *